REINZ & Tony Alexander real estate survey: market on hold

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Most of the indicators that we collect in the monthly survey have barely changed compared to the previous month. The market is kind of on hold as fewer people participate in open houses and auctions, investors continue to refrain from new purchases, but the number of first-time homebuyers remains stable.

All of the indicators we track are at below average levels, which suggests the market is cooling off, with one exception. The net share of brokers who say they see more people wanting an appraisal of the market value of their property is + 27%. This is well above the average since April last year of just 9%.

This could be an early sign that listings are about to improve beyond what one would expect with the approach of summer and hopefully the reopening of Auckland. If so, this would be what would be expected if mortgage rates had risen sharply in the past two months. In fact, the currently most popular three-year maturity includes an interest rate close to 4%, which is the same as the rate in April 2019 before the Reserve Bank cut its official cash rate by 0.75% that year.

https://img.scoop.co.nz/media/pdfs/2111/Tony_Alexander_Report_November_2021_1.pdf

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